Invertir en activos alternativos en distintos regímenes macroeconómicos (2026-2028)

Purpose. This white paper looks ahead to 2026–2028 and examines how alternative investments may perform under different macroeconomic regimes. The goal is to help asset managers, wealth managers and institutional advisors allocate capital across private equity, private credit, real assets, infrastructure, real estate, hedge funds and digital/tokenized assets. The paper does not recap historical performance; instead, it frames forward‑looking scenarios based on current forecasts and sentiment.

Key themes.

• Higher‑for‑longer rates & moderate growth. Most consensus forecasts see global GDP growing about 3 % through 2026–2028, with U.S. growth around 2 % and inflation slowly returning to central‑bank targets. Policy rates may decline but remain near 3 % – well above the zero‑rate era.
• Soft landing vs. hard landing. Baseline projections assume a soft landing: easing inflation, stable labor markets and modest growth. Yet elevated debt levels, geopolitical shocks, deglobalization and fiscal constraints could trigger a hard‑landing recession.
• Re‑acceleration vs. disinflation. Artificial intelligence (AI) and re‑shoring investment may add to demand and energy use, risking a new inflation spike. Conversely, technological productivity and supply‑chain normalization may produce disinflation.
• Fiscal dominance & debt sustainability. High public debt and persistent deficits have increased sensitivity to bond‑market volatility. The U.S. 10‑year yield is projected to remain around 4 %, and unsustainable deficits could precipitate sudden rate jumps.
• Geopolitical fragmentation & supply‑chain realignment. National security concerns are reshaping trade, capital flows and energy markets. “Nationalism is on the rise,” and industrial policies are changing real‑estate and infrastructure demand.
• Liquidity cycles & capital availability. Periods of abundant private‑market fundraising may be followed by liquidity squeezes; investors must plan for distribution variability and secondaries.

Macroeconomic regimes for 2026–2028

1. Baseline soft landing / moderate disinflation

• Interest rates. Central banks begin cutting in 2026 but keep policy rates above the pre‑2020 average, with the U.S. federal funds rate stabilizing near 3.1–3.4 %. Ten‑year Treasury yields around 3.9–4.2 % imply a higher risk‑free anchor for asset pricing.
• Growth. Real GDP growth in the U.S. and Europe is forecast around 1.8–2.3 %, while emerging markets expand faster (~3.8 %).
• Inflation. CPI and PCE inflation gradually decline toward 2 %, but remain slightly above target due to wage pressures, AI‑driven capex and sticky services costs.
• Policy. Fiscal policy remains expansionary but constrained. The U.S. and Europe continue spending on infrastructure, defense and industrial policy, yet bond markets discipline profligate governments. Monetary policy is cautious to avoid reigniting inflation.

Implications for alternatives. Higher baseline rates provide a reasonable income floor for private credit, infrastructure and core real estate. Moderate growth and disinflation favor businesses that can pass through inflation or benefit from secular demand (data centers, renewable energy, logistics). Equity valuations normalize as discount rates remain elevated, but earnings grow. Hedge funds find opportunities in regional and sector dispersion.

2. Re‑acceleration & fiscal dominance

• Interest rates. Persistent deficits and AI‑driven investment lead to re‑acceleration of inflation; bond investors demand higher risk premiums. Policy rates remain elevated or rise, and long‑term yields could stay >4.5 %.
• Growth. Industrial onshoring and AI adoption boost investment, pushing growth temporarily above potential. However, supply‑side constraints (power, skilled labor) limit sustainable expansion, and inflation surprises test central‑bank credibility.
• Policy. Fiscal dominance emerges. Governments prioritize growth and security over debt sustainability. Debt overhang may trigger market stresses and currency depreciation, particularly in the U.S.

Implications for alternatives. Real assets tied to energy, infrastructure and commodities benefit from higher inflation and capex. Core infrastructure is at an inflection point; capital expenditure is projected to outpace depreciation for the first time this century due to rising energy demand, energy security and the energy transition. Investors with existing utilities and power‑generation assets are best positioned to capture upside. Private credit yields may rise, but higher borrowing costs strain leveraged companies. Private equity faces higher financing costs; operational value‑creation and small‑mid‑market deals become essential.

3. Hard landing / recession

• Interest rates. A shock (debt crisis, geopolitical escalation, financial accident) leads to a sharp economic contraction. Policy rates are cut aggressively, and yields compress.
• Growth. Real GDP declines for several quarters; unemployment rises above 5 %.
• Inflation. Disinflation or even deflation emerges as demand collapses; commodities retreat.
• Policy. Fiscal stimulus increases but is hampered by fiscal constraints; central banks reintroduce unconventional tools.

Implications for alternatives. Liquidity dries up. Private credit experiences higher defaults and mark‑downs; strategies with strong covenants, senior secured positions and special situations may provide relative safety. Real estate valuations fall further but income streams from high‑quality assets remain resilient. Infrastructure retains defensive characteristics due to regulated cash flows and inflation linkage. Hedge funds with macro and relative‑value orientations may deliver positive returns, offering portfolio ballast.

4. Stagflation & geopolitical fragmentation

• Interest rates. Inflation remains stubbornly high while growth stagnates due to supply‑side shocks (energy shortages, trade wars, commodity restrictions). Central banks face a trade‑off between anchoring inflation expectations and supporting weak economies.
• Growth. Real GDP fluctuates around zero; productivity gains are offset by geopolitical disruption and protectionism.
• Policy. Governments pursue industrial policy and fiscal support, but fragmentation raises costs and reduces efficiency.

Implications for alternatives. Hard assets (energy infrastructure, commodities, farmland, timberland) provide inflation hedges. Infrastructure investment surges as nations build redundant supply chains and secure energy sources. Private equity and venture capital valuations compress but opportunities arise in domestic champions aligned with national priorities. Hedge funds exploiting macro dislocations and volatility perform well. Digital assets and tokenized real‑world assets gain traction as investors seek alternative stores of value and diversifiers.

Role of alternative investments across regimes

Private credit

• Structural growth and maturing market. Global private credit AUM doubled in the first half of the 2020s and is projected to reach US$3.5 trillion by 2029. The market’s appeal stems from an illiquidity premium, lower volatility and low correlation to public credit. However, the influx of capital has led to a supply–demand imbalance, spread compression and more competition for new deals. Investment discipline and selective sourcing will be critical.
• Public–private convergence. Borrowers increasingly mix public and private debt tranches, giving investors greater optionality. Direct lending has evolved from a niche product to a mainstream alternative to syndicated loans. Hybrid portfolios may enhance diversification and maintain partial liquidity.
• Regime‑specific behavior

Soft landing: Senior direct lending offers yields roughly 200 bp above public credit; lower default rates and floating‑rate structures provide income and inflation protection.
Re‑acceleration: Rising rates can pressure highly leveraged borrowers; investors should emphasize senior secured loans and special‑situations strategies.
Recession: Defaults rise; vintage selection and manager quality drive outcomes.
Stagflation: Floating‑rate loans maintain income, but borrowers’ pricing power matters; sectors with pricing flexibility (essential services) fare better.

Private equity

• Market reset and reopening. By late 2025 the bid‑ask spread in private equity narrowed, credit markets reopened and investor sentiment improved. Three forces support robust dealmaking in 2026: (1) value expectations normalizing as earnings growth bridges valuation gaps; (2) credit markets providing leverage with spreads now below SOFR +500 bp; and (3) limited partners recommitting capital as public portfolios rebound.
• Opportunity sets. Small‑ and mid‑market transactions (<US$1.5 billion enterprise values) offer lower entry multiples and greater potential for operational improvements. Many are family‑ or founder‑owned and can benefit from professionalization and efficiency gains. Secondary transactions (GP‑led and LP‑led) should remain active, offering liquidity and pricing discovery. AI‑related deals, critical infrastructure, energy transition and healthcare are fertile areas.
• Regime‑specific behavior

Soft landing: Stable macro conditions and moderate rates support a resurgence of M&A and IPO exits.
Re‑acceleration: Higher financing costs compress valuations; managers must rely on operational value creation. AI, semiconductor and energy infrastructure investments can deliver durable growth.
Recession: Liquidity dries up; vintage 2026–2027 funds may purchase assets at attractive discounts. Managers should maintain dry powder and diversify exit pathways.
Stagflation: Emphasize businesses with pricing power and real‑asset exposure; investee companies should secure supply chains and energy.

Inmobiliario

• Durable recovery underway. The JP Morgan outlook anticipates a global commercial real‑estate (CRE) recovery in 2026, with equity yields expected to outpace debt yields. Lower interest rates continued economic expansion and limited supply support high‑quality assets. Prime office markets in the U.S., Europe and APAC exhibit low vacancy and strong rental growth, while lower‑quality assets face headwinds. Residential markets remain structurally undersupplied, and retail is gaining relevance due to omnichannel integration.
• Inverted capital structure reversing. During 2023–2025, debt yields exceeded equity yields for CRE, signaling dislocation. As rates normalize, capital structures should revert, spurring transactions. Property values remain below pre‑COVID levels while income growth endures, creating attractive entry points.
• Regime‑specific behavior.

Soft landing: Core and value‑added strategies in high‑quality office, logistics and residential segments should outperform.
Re‑acceleration: Higher rates favor debt strategies (mezzanine, preferred equity); high‑power industrial assets (semiconductors, EV supply chains) benefit from onshoring.
Recession: Distressed opportunities arise in over‑leveraged properties; hospitality and secondary office markets suffer.
Stagflation: Real estate provides partial inflation hedge; assets with short lease durations (multifamily) adjust rents more quickly.

Infrastructure and real assets

• Structural inflection. Core infrastructure investment is set to materially outpace depreciation for the first time this century, driven by the “three Es”: rising energy demand, the need for energy security and the energy transition. Capital shortages may lead to higher returns for the same or lower risk. Exposure to existing utilities and regulated assets provides stable cash flows and inflation linkage.
• Energy demand surge. OECD power demand is forecast to grow 2–4 % annually into the 2040s, well above the near‑zero growth of recent decades. AI, data centers, EVs and onshoring add industrial load to grids. Europe’s focus on energy security following the Russia‑Ukraine war underscores the need for diversified sources.
• Implications. Digital infrastructure (data centers, fiber, towers), renewable generation, grid upgrades, water and transportation assets should experience strong demand and pricing power. Infrastructure funds offer defensive, cash‑yielding exposure across regimes. In high‑inflation or stagflation scenarios, regulated assets with inflation‑indexed tariffs deliver real returns.
• Real assets beyond infrastructure. Timberland, farmland, carbon credits and commodities offer additional hedges; farmland values benefit from food security and supply‑chain localization; timberland captures housing demand and carbon offsets.

Hedge funds

• Renaissance in alpha generation. Heightened volatility, greater dispersion and normalized rates are creating a richer environment for hedge funds. Macro managers exploit divergent central‑bank policies, reshoring and geopolitical risks by trading rates, currencies and commodities. Relative‑value and equity long/short strategies harvest dispersion created by policy‑driven volatility.
• Diversification benefits. Uncorrelated hedge fund strategies can deliver positive returns during equity and bond sell‑offs, improving portfolio resilience. Allocations are shifting toward European and Asian managers and quant/macro strategies.
• Regime‑specific behavior. Hedge funds thrive in re‑acceleration, stagflation and hard‑landing regimes where dispersion and volatility are high. In soft landings, alpha opportunities persist but may be more muted. Manager selection is critical; due diligence should evaluate strategy, risk management and liquidity.

Digital assets & tokenized alternatives

• Regulatory clarity and adoption. En Genius Act (2025) created the first federal framework for stablecoins, and the forthcoming Clarity Act (expected 2026) will define digital commodities and broker/dealer requirements. These laws aim to provide “rules of the road” that reduce legal uncertainty and encourage institutional participation.
• Tokenization of real‑world assets. Tokenization enables fractional ownership and improved liquidity for traditionally illiquid assets (private equity, real estate, carbon credits, art). Asset managers can structure interval or semi‑liquid funds using blockchain to broaden access. Banks and custody providers are developing crypto intermediation services, though tax rules, custody, insurance and user experience remain hurdles.
• Market outlook. The World Economic Forum notes that 2026 could be a defining moment for digital assets: stablecoins are proliferating, enterprise blockchain adoption is moving from experimentation to production and tokenization is expanding the investable universe. Interoperability and global regulatory coordination will determine adoption. For investors, tokenized fund structures may offer exposure with improved liquidity, automated compliance and potentially lower fees
• Regime‑specific behavior.

Soft landing: Tokenization benefits from increasing institutional acceptance and moderate risk appetite.
Re‑acceleration & stagflation: Inflation concerns may accelerate demand for digital stores of value (e.g., certain stablecoins, tokenized gold).
Hard landing: Risk aversion may lead to volatility across crypto markets; regulated tokenized assets with clear collateral backing could retain investor trust.

Strategic implications for asset and wealth managers

1. Scenario‑based allocation frameworks. Traditional static allocations to alternatives are insufficient. Managers should design scenario‑tested portfolios that adjust the mix of private credit, private equity, real assets and hedge funds according to macro conditions. Stress tests should consider liquidity constraints, drawdown durations and capital call dynamics under hard‑landing scenarios.
2. Balance income and growth. Higher base rates reduce the need to chase excessive risk for yield. Allocate to senior private credit and core infrastructure for durable income, complementing growth‑oriented private equity and venture capital exposures. Rebalancing toward small‑ and mid‑market private equity and operational alpha may improve risk‑adjusted returns.
3. Emphasize quality and manager selection. Dispersion of returns across managers will widen as markets normalize. Emphasize due diligence on underwriting standards, covenant protection and operational capability. In hedge funds, ensure strategies match the portfolio’s objective and funding source.
4. Harness secular themes.
5. • AI and digitalization: Invest across the AI value chain – data centres, semiconductors, software – via private equity and infrastructure; incorporate AI tools for deal sourcing, underwriting and risk management.
   • Decarbonization: Allocate to renewable energy, grid modernization, sustainable agriculture and carbon markets.
   • Deglobalization: Target domestic supply‑chain resilience in manufacturing, logistics and energy infrastructure.

1. Adapt to liquidity innovations. Semi‑liquid and evergreen fund structures, interval funds and tokenized vehicles are expanding access to private markets. Educate clients about liquidity risks, redemption terms and NAV processes. Maintain liquidity buffers to meet capital calls and client redemptions during stress events.
2. Communicate transparently. Alternative investments involve opaque valuations, lengthy capital commitments and uneven cash flows. Advisors must set realistic expectations, emphasize long‑term horizons and educate clients about interim mark‑to‑market volatility. Scenario analysis helps clients understand the range of outcomes.

Investor-level considerations

• Time horizon & liquidity. Private markets require multi‑year horizons. Investors should align allocations with liquidity needs and avoid over‑committing capital. Evergreen and interval funds offer partial liquidity but may gate during market stress.
• Valuation uncertainty. Private assets report valuations quarterly or semi‑annually; marks lag public markets. Expectation management is essential, particularly during volatility, when down marks can surprise clients.
• Manager dispersion & operational risk. The gap between top and bottom quartile returns is wide. Due diligence on governance, risk systems, operational robustness and alignment of interests is critical. Tokenized and digital funds introduce cyber‑security and smart‑contract risk.
• Behavioral biases. In regime shifts, investors may succumb to recency bias or panic selling. Education and disciplined rebalancing are required to avoid timing mistakes. Committing to vintage diversification across cycles can mitigate entry‑point risk.

Future sentiment & market direction (2026–2028)

• Crédito privado: Institutional and retail demand continues to expand; secondaries and hybrid public/private structures proliferate. Yields compress but remain attractive relative to liquid credit; special‑situations strategies gain relevance. Banks increasingly partner with private lenders, providing origination pipelines.
• Infrastructure & real assets: Governments prioritize energy security, digital infrastructure and climate resilience. Capital expenditure outpaces depreciation, creating a prolonged investment cycle. Mid‑market and secondary infrastructure transactions gain share.
• Capital riesgo: Dealmaking accelerates, particularly in small‑ and mid‑market segments, AI infrastructure, energy transition and healthcare. Fundraising rebounds as distributions improve. Valuations stabilize; managers focus on operational alpha and technology integration. New regulations may broaden DC pension access to private markets.
• Fondos de alto riesgo: Allocators plan to increase exposure, favoring macro, relative‑value and quantitative strategies. Portable‑alpha structures and separately managed accounts gain popularity. Manager dispersion emphasizes the importance of selection and risk management.
• Digital assets & tokenization: Regulatory clarity fuels mainstream adoption. Tokenized fund structures, stablecoins and on‑chain settlement become integral components of private‑market infrastructure. Institutional sentiment improves but remains cautious, adoption hinges on interoperability, custody solutions and tax treatment.

Conclusion: preparing for a multipolar future

The period 2026–2028 will be characterized by a multipolar economic landscape. Higher baseline rates, fiscal constraints, geopolitical fragmentation and technological revolutions create both opportunity and uncertainty. Alternative investments can provide diversification, income, inflation protection and exposure to secular growth themes, but they require careful scenario planning, manager selection and liquidity management. By balancing income‑producing assets (private credit, infrastructure, core real estate) with growth‑oriented strategies (private equity, venture capital, digital assets) and diversifying through hedge funds and real assets, institutional investors can build resilient portfolios. Above all, practitioners must remain adaptable, embracing innovation in fund structures, technology and regulation while maintaining discipline and transparency in client communications. The future will reward those who plan for multiple regimes and allocate capital accordingly.

Sources

The following citations were used as reference points for the analysis presented in this report. They are listed here for transparency and to facilitate further research:

• Economic projections summarizing U.S. growth, inflation and Treasury yields.
• FOMC projections for GDP, inflation and the federal funds rate.
• ICG macro-outlook discussing risks from fiscal dominance and U.S. government debt.
• ICG notes on macro resilience and potential turmoil in U.S. debt markets.
• JP Morgan Alternative Investments Outlook summarizing nationalism and changing industrial landscapes.
• InfraRed strategic outlook on global GDP and inflation projections for 2026.
• InfraRed assessment of inflation trends and central‑bank policies.
• JP Morgan discussion on hedge fund opportunities amid volatility and dispersion.
• JP Morgan analysis of core infrastructure at an inflection point driven by energy demand, security and transition.
• Additional details on returns and positioning in infrastructure.
• JP Morgan evaluation of attractive entry points in real estate and the reversal of the inverted capital structure.